Travel Minutes

I get to go to Disney World in 2014

2009-07-26T14:57:00.000-07:00

We've never had to have too much of an excuse to have a family get together, and when we get Sherrie's Mom and Dad, both her brothers, and some or all of the children and grandchildren of the siblings together it's a houseful. About four years ago we were at her brother Scott's home celebrating his birthday. Now, this next part and the one following can get confusing so you might want to take notes. This is the second marriage for Sherrie and me and by coincidence her daughter's name and my youngest daughter's first names are the same - Angela. Fortunately Sherrie's daughter has been called "Ang" most of her life and my daughter has been called "Angel". Write that down.

Anyway, we were celebrating Scott's birthday and Maeve, Ang and Jim T's daughter, climbed up in Sherrie's lap (excuse me Grammy's lap - Sherrie is Grammy and I am Pa) and said excitedly, "Grammy, I'm going to Disney World for my fifth birthday!", to which Grammy replied with equal excitement, "That's wonderful Maeve. Who are you going with?" Maeve responded "You and Pa".

Thus did we not only learn that we were going to Disney World for the first time since 1983, but that a tradition has been instantly established whereby each grandchild got to go to Disney World with Grammy and Pa for their fifth birthday. No parents, no siblings, just one child as the center of attention for three nights and four days. We stay at Contemporary on the Concierge level because it is incredibly convenient and includes snack and breakfast amenities that are convenient.

We've done it twice with Ang and Jim T's children, first Maeve in 2006 and Truman in 2008. We get to do it again in 2o1o with Ian, the first child of Angel and Lee.

And I can tell you we are probably looking forward to it as much as Ian, and given that every time we get together he reminds me we are going to Disney World for his fifth birthday, that would be hard for some to comprehend. For four days we get to see wonder, excitement, and happiness that gives us a joy that is hard to describe. Oh sure, it is tiring, but it is a marvelous tired.

And we get to do it again in 2014. Angel and Lee's second child, also a son, was born on July 21st. And Angel and Lee chose my middle name for him, so Silas Phoenix Tucker will be going to Disney World in 2014 too. For all my life, I have shunned using my middle name or even telling anyone what it was because it was subject to ridicule.

Well, I'm here to tell to tell you that Silas is officially a cool name and I get to take my grandson to Disney World in 2014 to watch him discover all the marvels and wonder that the park and its attractions holds.

If you have a grandchild approaching his or her fifth or sixth birthday, start making plans to take a trip to Disney World. I promise it may be the best few days you will ever have had (at least until you get to take the next one for their birthday).

Things I've learned about surgery

2009-07-19T06:22:00.000-07:00

About three months ago I almost got to meet the driver of a speeding Toyota because losing 40 pounds caused already droopy eyelids to worsen and diminish my peripheral vision to the point I didn't see the oncoming car as I made a left turn.

A week ago, on Monday, I underwent blepharoplasty to remove the excess skin. Here are some tips for you if you decide to have a similarly very-visible surgery.

1. Do not joke with the surgeon, asking him to save the removed tissue so you can have it tanned and make a wallet. His hands will jerk as he laughs.
2. Do be ready for seemingly endless comments about looking like a raccoon.
3. Do not, on being asked what happened, say your wife has been beating you, at least not more than two or three times. This is because someone will believe you and when that happens the wife will beat you like a rented mule.
4. When attending a function with more than two people attending, wait until everyone arrives and only then give all the details of what happened, beginning with the Toyota, lest you have to repeat it at least once for every 2.7 people attending.
5. Do not be timid in brushing away hands with long fingernails that are used to point out salient features that have changed as a result of the surgery.
6. Resist the temptation to believe you can attend church with 2,400 fellow worshipers on Sunday and just wear sunglasses to mask the bruising. It will attract more attention than not doing so (see rule of 2.7 in number 4 above).

On the plus side:
1. Screaming, unruly children in stores instantly quiet themselves when you draw near.
2. Panhandlers will not ask for spare change, apparently thinking you are worse off than they.
3. The vision improvement will be instantly apparent even before the swelling begins to diminish.

Other than that, with the weight loss and surgery, I need to have another photo made because I don't look like me from early 2008.

The travel industry is changing and it may not all be good

2009-07-06T19:33:00.000-07:00

One of the things I have said consistently over the last twenty-five years of helping people find the very best vacation, is that the cruise industry, as small as it is, has more drama and corporate intrigue than any other industry three time its size. In the last twenty years the number of cruise lines has dropped from over thirty to three dominant lines, and if there is any truth to a rumor that surfaced today, the population is going to get smaller. "Insiders" report that Carnival Corporation, parent to Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America, Costa, Princess, Cunard and others may be preparing to offer $35.00 a share for Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines, parent of Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity, and Azamara. Carnival Corp. has something over 80 ships with 10 new builds on order, RCCL has over 20 ships with 7 new builds on order including two copies of the world's largest cruise ship, the Oasis and Allure.

From a stock price above $40.00 for Royal Caribbean (RCL) and close to $60.00 for Carnival Corp. (CCL) both have tumbled with RCL at one time close to $5.00 a share and a target price of $1.00 tacked on it by Barclay back in January. Carnival dropped as low as the mid-teens. RCL closed on July 6 at $12.89 with Carnival at $25.44.

For a number of reasons, I don't plan to rush out and buy a lot of RCL even though I think the breakup value (value of the assets if they were sold off individually) is probably close to $26.00 a share based on publicly available information.

Some of those reasons include:
1. Regulatory hurdles - It's true total cruise sales, as a percentage of total vacation sales is quite small. But if CCL were to take over RCL, the new entity would control about 82% of all North American cruise berths and revenue. I don't see the U.S. Department of Justice letting that happen in the U.S., nor various regulatory agencies in Europe letting this happen.
2. The "chemistry" between the top execs at CLL and RCL, Micky Arison and Richard Fain, is the sort of thing that makes legends, with a spirit of competition that seems very real even though there are those that would say it isn't. I don't see CCL taking over RCL without it being hostile, on a level that would make the RJR Nabisco takeover described in "Barbarians at the Gate" a veritable picnic.
3. $35 a share would be about a 34% premium over breakup. CCL has never paid a premium for anything it acquired that I know of and is unlikley to start now.

This merger would be a bad idea if for no other reason than it concentrates too much of an industry in one board room. That said, the seascape will almost certainly change this year because both cruise lines are undervalued and the industry, although prices are on the rise for the first time in a year or so.

Some have suggested Star Cruises, an Asian based line (parent of Norwegian Cruise Line until Apollo Management bought NCL) might be a logical buyer. I don't think that will happen because Star has their own issues, they lack liquidity, and the capital raising power to come up with the roughly $8 billion needed.

So, if there is any chance that RCL could be in play, who might be the player? Apollo Management. This is a money raising machine. Yes they have had problems over the last few months, have nearly twice the money needed to buy RCL at risk with Harrah's and more. But they went back into the REIT (Real Estatte Investment Trust) market in the last couple of days and are raising money just like old times. While still a stretch, Apollo seems more likely to succeed should RCL be put in play than Carnival Corp. Apollo owns three cruise lines, NCL, Oceania, and Regent. They control something over 10% of the industry and would be a formidable competitor to CCL should such a venture succeed.

You can go home again.

2009-06-29T17:39:00.000-07:00

My family moved from Greenville, SC between my junior and senior year in high school and I graduated with a bunch of really great people but they weren't the ones I grew up with. Sherrie and I went back to Greenville for the 50th reunion of the Greenville Senior High class of 1959. The organizing committee was kind enough to let us come even though I didn't graduate with them. And it was great! I hadn't seen my classmates for 51 years and surprisingly I recognized seven of them without looking at their name badges. Oh sure they had changed but I recognized them. One of the most interesting was a young lady I'll call Vanda 'cuz that's her name. Oh sure, the hair was a different color and the facial features were different, but as a bunch of us sat in a hospitality suite chatting she smiled and, like an electric shock, so help me it was like an electric shock, I saw the Vanda I knew 51 years ago.

And there were neat things like that all weekend.

The most interesting part was observing. The years had been good to most of us, not so good to some, and some of us had run across a world class surgeon or two. Others of us had run across surgeons of other types. One of my buddies, Howard, recollected for all of us having had open heart surgery and two cancer surgeries. He didn't tell the assembled class exactly what it was but did reveal that it involved 30 feet of garden hose with a television camera, a flashlight and a Swiss Army knife taped to it which the doctor put in a place no one ever thought it could go and God obviously never planned for it to go. Some of us laughed harder than others. Completely understanding humor will do that to you.

The neatest part though was discovering how much so many of us had in common. Many had traveled, had many interests in common, and really enjoyed good food and wines. I knew some of the guys really like PBR from the Clock Drive-In, courtesy of the carhop (cannot remember his name) who was everyone's best friend if they had a buck, but this was different.

Anyway, talking to a number of them led to discussions about a river cruise through Burgundy and Provence and it turns out there are a bunch of us that want to go. So I'm looking at a cruise with Avalon Waterways next May for a really great time.

Here's a link to a slideshow showing a bunch of us including my high school and my grammar school.

Sorry Thomas Wolfe, you got it wrong.

There's a light at the end of the tunnel

2009-06-23T09:34:00.000-07:00

And it's not a train.

This has been a tough year for the travel industry, especially the retail distribution side. Even with doom and gloom economic forecasts, our agency started off with a bang this year and we had great booking activity in January and February. Then as suddenly the bookings turned on just after Christmas, they turned off in March and it seemed there was a race to the bottom to see which cruise line could cut prices the most. We wound up processing bookings four and five times, each time cutting our earnings as prices dropped. One need not be a business major to understand that's a process that can't go on too long.

Prices stayed down and even though volume was pretty good, earnings per booking have been well below the break even point for even the major Internet travel retailers. This has not been lost on travel suppliers, cruise lines in particular, because, contrary to popular belief, travel retailers still provide a most necessary service to their clients and their suppliers. After peaking at about 7%, online cruise bookings have fallen off and are now estimated to be a bit above 5% and even that is misleading. The company that publishes statistics on Internet vacation booking counts any reservation that starts on the Internet as an online booking even though the traveler may call a live travel consultant. I consider an online booking to be one that started on the Internet, finishes on the Internet and never involves a human. With that caveat, it is likely that online cruise bookings are substantially lower.

So where's the light? I think we have seen a firming up in cruise pricing in recent weeks at our agency, and maybe even some signs prices are increasing. Part of that stems from the reality that prices can't go down any further. Part of it is a growing sense of confidence among consumers. As a result, travel retailers who have the resources to hang on until next March will be able to survive practically anything. For them, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

For others, the economy will claim them and they will merge, be bought, or go out of business. Either way, look for maybe a third of all travel agencies to be gone within two years, and maybe less.

Planning a vacation? Contact a local travel retailer and let them do the work for you.

Voice of reason or ?

2009-06-11T18:25:00.000-07:00

Carnival Corp. announced they don't have plans to reinstate fuel supplement surcharges. Yay. Hooray for some common sense by at least one executive, Micky Arison, at Carnival Corporation. The cruise business is insane just now. We're selling BALCONY staterooms for the same price as INSIDE cabins less than five years ago. We are selling SUITES for what an inside cabin sold for fifteen years ago. We are processing 2 1/2 times as many transactions as we did fifteen years ago and earning the same amount. All that while labor costs and rent have doubled. We have seen some rough spots in this business before but nothing has threatened viability of the travel agent retail distribution system as much as this downturn.

In January I predicted that 1/3 of all agencies would be gone in two years. I now believe I was wrong. It will more than likely be half of them and in eighteen months or less. The worst part of this is that it is genuinely bad for the cruise lines for this to happen. One of the first things I learned in business school is to NEVER allow your product distribution be controlled by a handful of retailers or distributors. When that happens the tail starts wagging the dog and the supplier and the consumer both lose when a small handful of mega agencies control vacation travel sales.

Because I Could

2009-06-04T06:29:00.000-07:00

We may not have all done it, but I guarantee that everyone reading this knows someone who, at some point in their lives, has done something just because they could. From putting a super-hero cape around our neck and jumping off the garage roof to see if we really could fly (might have been a towel now that I think about it) to standing sideways with one side of our body against a wall and trying to lift the opposite foot to see if it could be done (it can't), most of us have done something like that.

The speculative run-up in crude oil prices last year was probably the pin that finally popped the U.S. economic balloon. The combination of rising interest rates, gas prices going up $1600 a year per family on average and escalating prices on many other consumer goods was probably what squeezed a lot of families so hard that they began missing mortgage payments and when that happened it was a race to see who could hit bottom first.

Airlines and cruise lines jumped right in as well, adding relatively small fuel surcharges at first, ultimately reaching $11.00 per person per day. It was not until January that cruise lines removed these onerous charges, but did so by adding a qualifier to all bookings from which the surcharge was removed and inserting a provision in all new bookings that stated that if the price of light sweet crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose above $70.00 per barrel for some period of time (that varies by cruise line) that the cruise line reserved the right to add the fuel surcharge back to all bookings. As I write this, light sweet crude oil is bouncing around $68.00 a barrel as OPEC meets to discuss output and pricing. It is likely that oil will close above $70.00 per barrel in the next few days, or weeks at most.

Vacation travel has been surprisingly resilient this year with cruises especially in demand. Suites and deluxe staterooms have been the first to sell out, in great part because the cruise lines have reduced prices very substantially to stimulate demand (if you're a marketing/economics type, the cruise industry is the poster child for demonstrating price elasticity). As a result, mini-suites are selling for prices more typical of an inside stateroom of five years ago, and we may not have seen the bottom yet. The cruise industry is egg-shell fragile just now and so are many of the retail agencies and agents selling their product.

So what does this all have to do with anything? When oil does go back above $70.00 a barrel, I ask the cruise lines to think long and hard about adding back the surcharge to bookings just because they can. Like the boy jumping off the garage roof, the consequences of taking that step will be painful for the cruise lines and for their retail distribution system. This is really not the time to do something just because you can.

And here's another certainty - all you ladies have finished reading this and are off to other endeavors. The vast majority of the guys are still over at the wall trying to lift their opposite foot off the floor.

2009-05-25T12:39:00.000-07:00

What a country!! It's Memorial Day 2009 and I have a day off to do whatever I want! And what have I done? I woke up about 7:00, got energized with a cup of French-pressed Sumatran coffee that tastes as good as it smells, read the newspaper, then decided to fix breakfast and then remembered I had a survey I needed to put together and include with an eblast. I know, I know, that's a lot like work.

What's my point? Just this - I get to do anything legal (and what Sherrie says is okay for me to do) that I want because there have been those over the years who were willing to put themselves in harm's way to insure I had the freedom to do so. My father-in-law was in the Navy on Guadalcanal in 1943 and 1944. I have to remember to call and thank him today.

And if you ever thought you'd like to know more about the battles of World War II, there's a tour you have to take. Click here to see information on the finest tour of its type around. Sherrie and I had the opportunity to take a side trip to Normandy and see Omaha Beach, the cliff the U.S. Rangers climbed and the American Cemetery. It was one of the more moving days of my life and it was but a single destination of the tour offered by Image Tours. Call us at 800 888-0922 or 615 833-0922 for details.

Click on this link to see some of the photos we took at Normandy.

Do you know the history of Memorial Day? Originally called "Decoration Day", the day was set aside after the Civil War to decorate graves of Union soldiers killed in the conflict. In fact, the official name was Decoration Day until it was changed to "Memorial Day" in 1967 and then changed by the Uniform Holiday Observance Act of 1971 to be the last Monday in May. And because it was a "Yankee" holiday, most if not all Southern states did not observe the holiday until the sixties. In fact, there are still some states and companies that don't recognize it fully by giving employees the day off. For some, the Recent War of Yankee Aggression culminating in Sherman's "Retreat to the Sea" through Atlanta and environs is still fresh on their minds and they'll Never Forget.

The next time you travel about the U.S. without hindrance and document checks, remember a veteran.

High School Class reunion

2009-05-18T15:00:00.000-07:00

I have a high school class reunion coming up in less than three weeks (not saying which one, but we used a wedge-shaped tool pressed into a moist clay tablets to take notes) and I am really looking forward to it. It's been interesting reconnecting with people I literally haven't heard from or of for a half century. I remember some better than others, some I don't remember at all (but that doesn't necessarily mean I didn't know them in school I guess) and I find I have a bond with every one of them. My dad was transferred a lot and I spent longer in Greenville, SC, than I did anywhere else until I moved to Nashville, so I guess that's why this seems so special, because these are the people I knew in a simpler, less hectic time. And as I wrote that I thought, well, yeah it did seem less hectic but that's looking at it in the rear view mirror. At the time it didn't seem quite that way.

There is a core group of students who maintained contact over the years and they have had several reunions and I just never found out about them until after the fact. They've done a great job, and I had a chance to offer a small bit of help in setting up a group room rate at a local hotel. What I had the chance to do is tiny compared to the time and effort these others have put into making this what may be the fondest memory a lot of us will have, from finding a venue for the main event, arranging a tour of the old school, setting up the evening activities, deciding on food and beverage service, arranging for entertainment, setting a budget, collecting money, and promoting the event to all the members who could be reached. They did a great job and I hope they are recognized for their effort. If I have the chance, they will be.

I found all of my classmates except for a couple on Facebook. It is undoubtedly one of the best tools around to reconnect with people with whom you have lost contact. If you don't have a Facebook account, go to http://www.facebook.com/ and set up an account. Fill in your profile completely, especially the sections on where you went to school. In the upper right hand column is a Search field. Type in Charlie Funk Nashville TN and my name will pop up. Request that I add you as a friend and I'll reply and help you get started.

It's also interesting to see how others handle reunions as well, whether school, family, military or other. An increasingly popular way to get together and reminisce is to take a cruise. Most reunion leaders we work with have prior experience and really like cruise reunions because there's so little for them to have to do to be sure everyone is pleased and has a great time. I may just go along on one of the upcoming reunions to see if they have as much fun as I think Sherrie and I are going to have.

2009-05-12T09:46:00.000-07:00

About three years ago a new way of selling travel appeared on the scene. According to their hype, their multi-level marketing scheme was the future for travel sales and that travel agents as they were now known were dodo birds that no one had had the courtesy to tell they were extinct. The company that brought this radical new tool to the world was Your Travel Business, usually known as YTB.

Like every other MLM that has ever come along, those in early who sold lots and lots of suckers on the downline did indeed make a lot of money. And just like every MLM that has ever come along, those entering late who bought in never recouped their investment.

The idea was that each new recruit, who paid $500.00 to join and $50.00 a month to stay a member, would become a "referring travel agent" or RTA and in turn recruit others to buy in and they would recruit still others. It was clear to those who hadn't drunk the kool aid that the whole thing was a pyramid scheme, had nothing to do with selling travel and made false promises to recruits about how much money they could make, how many free trips they could get, and more.

Many of the recruits were fervent, passionate believers to the point of being obnoxious and insulting to those who truly are travel consultants, who have studied and worked hard to be a part of an honorable profession. Just as knowing where to buy aspirin doesn't make one a doctor, knowing where to find travel content did not make someone a travel agent.

Things began to unravel about a year ago when first California and then Illinois filed suit against YTB alleging, among other things, that the company was an illegal pyramid scheme. The situation is about to come to a head. See this link http://www.travelweekly.com/article3_ektid194332.aspx

I'll save you the time of doing the math, but the average YTB "travel agent" made less than $31.00 commission in the first quarter of 2009. That a little more than $10.00 a month for which each agent paid $50.00 a month to participate.

I didn't major in accounting but I took several accounting courses and as near as I can tell, this isn't a good deal.

To all those out there who bought off on the YTB myth and joined: If you are serious about wanting to sell travel, if you have a passion for helping people get the best vacation possible, contact me at charlie@justcruisinplus.com.

There' no hype, no kool aid, and no membership fee.

Meanwhile, all the real travel agents and counselors in the world can take satisfaction in knowing they represent the best in what we do.

Don't leave home without it

2009-05-11T18:29:00.000-07:00

Well, I think the Feds have finally settled on immigration regs for U.S. residents. Well, almost. Effective June 1, 2009, anyone entering the United States from another country by whatever means must have either a passport or a passport card.

On or after June 1, U.S. citizens must have a passport to return to the U.S. by air. Period.

But, just so you won't get dug in too tight, there is also something called a Passport Card. A passport card allows U.S. citizens to re-enter the U.S. on the ground (on foot or in a vehicle) or on a cruise ship. But before you begin thinking you're good to go with a passport card for that Caribbean cruise you've been planning, read again the paragraph just above. If a passenger used a Passport Card to board a cruise ship has to return to the United States from another country by air, he or she will not be permitted to return using the Passport Card. There is no wiggle room.

It's not about getting out of the country. It's about getting back in. Yes a Passport Card costs about half as much as a passport but it is also only valid half as long as a passport and the Passport Card utility is inferior except in limited circumstances

So how often does someone have to fly home from a non-U.S. port while on a cruise? Far more often than you think. And even if it only happened once every million cruise passengers, if that millionth passenger is you, statistics go out the window.

Charlie's tip for the decade - GET A PASSPORT! It's just not worth the risk.

Alaska is really hot this year with better deals than I have seen since - EVER. Alaskan cruises never come to mind that I don't think of an incident that occurred about five years ago.

It was late August and a woman called to get information on an Alaskan cruise. From the conversation, it was obvious she had never taken a cruise but she also didn't want to be obvious about it because she didn't want "the wool pulled over her eyes". Just to be sure our agent knew she was serious, she explained that she could only travel the first or second week of September, and she was ready to give our agent a credit card but only if our agent could guarantee that the glaciers would still be out. The agent put the client on hold and came in my office and frantically asked "What do I tell her?" My response - take the credit card 'cuz if the glaciers aren't out for her cruise we have a whole lot worse problems than a credit card charge back.

Finally, a couple of voices of reason

2009-04-30T09:32:00.001-07:00

At last a couple of respectable news reporting organizations are beginning to publish info on the H1N1 outbreak. Take a look at these two links for more information.

The first is from Bloomberg, a prominent financial reporting organization
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aYh5mi5NAZ94&refer=home

The second if from the Los Angeles "Times"
http://www.latimes.com/features/health/la-sci-swine-reality30-2009apr30,0,3606923.story

There are now reports that this particular H1N1 strain may be even less threatening than the variant that many of us were vaccinated against leading into flu season last October. Trying to find a positive side to this, the hyperbole about influenza seems to have completely blown all concerns about GM facing the possibility of going bankrupt, the likelihood that Chrysler will file for bankruptcy as early as today, April 30, the fact that Pakistan is fighting to avoid being taken over by Taliban and al Qaeda, and that we are still fighting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Hundreds of thousands of jobs are at risk, a nuclear-armed nation teeters on the verge of falling into the hands of extremists, and our news organizations are fixated upon something that is still not even an epidemic, let alone a pandemic.

And again, we would never trivialize the concern about H1N1 spreading, and have implemented hygiene standards in our office to mitigate the possibility of infection. We have a far bigger problem right now with one of our guard schnauzer's flatulence. If you stop by our office and we're all wearing masks, it has nothing to do with H1N1.

"Swine Flu" hysteria

2009-04-29T08:39:00.000-07:00

So much hyperbole and so little time! Or at least it would seem so. Every channel, cable or broadcast, seems driven to out sensationalize the other and do it before another station beats them to it.

I would never trivialize the matter, but factual information that puts the situation in perspective will serve to minimize decision making based on fear rather than fact.

Fact: "Swine Flu" is a type A flu virus, H1N1, one of the most common, if not the most common flu virus. That would explain why those infected respond so well to Tamiflu and Relenza. Ref: http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/

Fact: The CDC estimates that some 35,000 - 36,000 U.S. residents die of "regular" flu or complications of flu. There is no greater need to panic as the result of this recent outbreak than there was last October when everyone was advised to get a flu shot. Ref: http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel/r030107.htm

To their everlasting discredit, many news media have seemed frenzied to get the latest fear-mongering bit of news on the street. It is likely the stress and anxiety these histrionics have created has done more harm than H1N1 ever will for those affected.

Thus far the only network to take even a modest step back has been CNN and it had a piece this morning relating some of the above information that we have been circulating for the last two days. Ref: http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/29/swine.flu/index.html

The reality is that being no more diligent about personal hygiene than you would normally (sneeze into a handkerchief or tissue or into the shirt sleeve, wash hands thoroughly, discard used tissues at once) and avoid coughing or sneezing into the open will normally be sufficient. The need to follow this protocol stems from the fact that viruses distributed in an aerosol (cough or sneeze) will linger in a room for up to an hour after the affected person leaves.