We've never had to have too much of an excuse to have a family get together, and when we get Sherrie's Mom and Dad, both her brothers, and some or all of the children and grandchildren of the siblings together it's a houseful. About four years ago we were at her brother Scott's home celebrating his birthday. Now, this next part and the one following can get confusing so you might want to take notes. This is the second marriage for Sherrie and me and by coincidence her daughter's name and my youngest daughter's first names are the same - Angela. Fortunately Sherrie's daughter has been called "Ang" most of her life and my daughter has been called "Angel". Write that down.
Anyway, we were celebrating Scott's birthday and Maeve, Ang and Jim T's daughter, climbed up in Sherrie's lap (excuse me Grammy's lap - Sherrie is Grammy and I am Pa) and said excitedly, "Grammy, I'm going to Disney World for my fifth birthday!", to which Grammy replied with equal excitement, "That's wonderful Maeve. Who are you going with?" Maeve responded "You and Pa".
Thus did we not only learn that we were going to Disney World for the first time since 1983, but that a tradition has been instantly established whereby each grandchild got to go to Disney World with Grammy and Pa for their fifth birthday. No parents, no siblings, just one child as the center of attention for three nights and four days. We stay at Contemporary on the Concierge level because it is incredibly convenient and includes snack and breakfast amenities that are convenient.
We've done it twice with Ang and Jim T's children, first Maeve in 2006 and Truman in 2008. We get to do it again in 2o1o with Ian, the first child of Angel and Lee.
And I can tell you we are probably looking forward to it as much as Ian, and given that every time we get together he reminds me we are going to Disney World for his fifth birthday, that would be hard for some to comprehend. For four days we get to see wonder, excitement, and happiness that gives us a joy that is hard to describe. Oh sure, it is tiring, but it is a marvelous tired.
And we get to do it again in 2014. Angel and Lee's second child, also a son, was born on July 21st. And Angel and Lee chose my middle name for him, so Silas Phoenix Tucker will be going to Disney World in 2014 too. For all my life, I have shunned using my middle name or even telling anyone what it was because it was subject to ridicule.
Well, I'm here to tell to tell you that Silas is officially a cool name and I get to take my grandson to Disney World in 2014 to watch him discover all the marvels and wonder that the park and its attractions holds.
If you have a grandchild approaching his or her fifth or sixth birthday, start making plans to take a trip to Disney World. I promise it may be the best few days you will ever have had (at least until you get to take the next one for their birthday).
Sunday, July 26, 2009
Sunday, July 19, 2009
Things I've learned about surgery
About three months ago I almost got to meet the driver of a speeding Toyota because losing 40 pounds caused already droopy eyelids to worsen and diminish my peripheral vision to the point I didn't see the oncoming car as I made a left turn.
A week ago, on Monday, I underwent blepharoplasty to remove the excess skin. Here are some tips for you if you decide to have a similarly very-visible surgery.
1. Do not joke with the surgeon, asking him to save the removed tissue so you can have it tanned and make a wallet. His hands will jerk as he laughs.
2. Do be ready for seemingly endless comments about looking like a raccoon.
3. Do not, on being asked what happened, say your wife has been beating you, at least not more than two or three times. This is because someone will believe you and when that happens the wife will beat you like a rented mule.
4. When attending a function with more than two people attending, wait until everyone arrives and only then give all the details of what happened, beginning with the Toyota, lest you have to repeat it at least once for every 2.7 people attending.
5. Do not be timid in brushing away hands with long fingernails that are used to point out salient features that have changed as a result of the surgery.
6. Resist the temptation to believe you can attend church with 2,400 fellow worshipers on Sunday and just wear sunglasses to mask the bruising. It will attract more attention than not doing so (see rule of 2.7 in number 4 above).
On the plus side:
1. Screaming, unruly children in stores instantly quiet themselves when you draw near.
2. Panhandlers will not ask for spare change, apparently thinking you are worse off than they.
3. The vision improvement will be instantly apparent even before the swelling begins to diminish.
Other than that, with the weight loss and surgery, I need to have another photo made because I don't look like me from early 2008.
A week ago, on Monday, I underwent blepharoplasty to remove the excess skin. Here are some tips for you if you decide to have a similarly very-visible surgery.
1. Do not joke with the surgeon, asking him to save the removed tissue so you can have it tanned and make a wallet. His hands will jerk as he laughs.
2. Do be ready for seemingly endless comments about looking like a raccoon.
3. Do not, on being asked what happened, say your wife has been beating you, at least not more than two or three times. This is because someone will believe you and when that happens the wife will beat you like a rented mule.
4. When attending a function with more than two people attending, wait until everyone arrives and only then give all the details of what happened, beginning with the Toyota, lest you have to repeat it at least once for every 2.7 people attending.
5. Do not be timid in brushing away hands with long fingernails that are used to point out salient features that have changed as a result of the surgery.
6. Resist the temptation to believe you can attend church with 2,400 fellow worshipers on Sunday and just wear sunglasses to mask the bruising. It will attract more attention than not doing so (see rule of 2.7 in number 4 above).
On the plus side:
1. Screaming, unruly children in stores instantly quiet themselves when you draw near.
2. Panhandlers will not ask for spare change, apparently thinking you are worse off than they.
3. The vision improvement will be instantly apparent even before the swelling begins to diminish.
Other than that, with the weight loss and surgery, I need to have another photo made because I don't look like me from early 2008.
Monday, July 6, 2009
The travel industry is changing and it may not all be good
One of the things I have said consistently over the last twenty-five years of helping people find the very best vacation, is that the cruise industry, as small as it is, has more drama and corporate intrigue than any other industry three time its size. In the last twenty years the number of cruise lines has dropped from over thirty to three dominant lines, and if there is any truth to a rumor that surfaced today, the population is going to get smaller. "Insiders" report that Carnival Corporation, parent to Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America, Costa, Princess, Cunard and others may be preparing to offer $35.00 a share for Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines, parent of Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity, and Azamara. Carnival Corp. has something over 80 ships with 10 new builds on order, RCCL has over 20 ships with 7 new builds on order including two copies of the world's largest cruise ship, the Oasis and Allure.
From a stock price above $40.00 for Royal Caribbean (RCL) and close to $60.00 for Carnival Corp. (CCL) both have tumbled with RCL at one time close to $5.00 a share and a target price of $1.00 tacked on it by Barclay back in January. Carnival dropped as low as the mid-teens. RCL closed on July 6 at $12.89 with Carnival at $25.44.
For a number of reasons, I don't plan to rush out and buy a lot of RCL even though I think the breakup value (value of the assets if they were sold off individually) is probably close to $26.00 a share based on publicly available information.
Some of those reasons include:
1. Regulatory hurdles - It's true total cruise sales, as a percentage of total vacation sales is quite small. But if CCL were to take over RCL, the new entity would control about 82% of all North American cruise berths and revenue. I don't see the U.S. Department of Justice letting that happen in the U.S., nor various regulatory agencies in Europe letting this happen.
2. The "chemistry" between the top execs at CLL and RCL, Micky Arison and Richard Fain, is the sort of thing that makes legends, with a spirit of competition that seems very real even though there are those that would say it isn't. I don't see CCL taking over RCL without it being hostile, on a level that would make the RJR Nabisco takeover described in "Barbarians at the Gate" a veritable picnic.
3. $35 a share would be about a 34% premium over breakup. CCL has never paid a premium for anything it acquired that I know of and is unlikley to start now.
This merger would be a bad idea if for no other reason than it concentrates too much of an industry in one board room. That said, the seascape will almost certainly change this year because both cruise lines are undervalued and the industry, although prices are on the rise for the first time in a year or so.
Some have suggested Star Cruises, an Asian based line (parent of Norwegian Cruise Line until Apollo Management bought NCL) might be a logical buyer. I don't think that will happen because Star has their own issues, they lack liquidity, and the capital raising power to come up with the roughly $8 billion needed.
So, if there is any chance that RCL could be in play, who might be the player? Apollo Management. This is a money raising machine. Yes they have had problems over the last few months, have nearly twice the money needed to buy RCL at risk with Harrah's and more. But they went back into the REIT (Real Estatte Investment Trust) market in the last couple of days and are raising money just like old times. While still a stretch, Apollo seems more likely to succeed should RCL be put in play than Carnival Corp. Apollo owns three cruise lines, NCL, Oceania, and Regent. They control something over 10% of the industry and would be a formidable competitor to CCL should such a venture succeed.
From a stock price above $40.00 for Royal Caribbean (RCL) and close to $60.00 for Carnival Corp. (CCL) both have tumbled with RCL at one time close to $5.00 a share and a target price of $1.00 tacked on it by Barclay back in January. Carnival dropped as low as the mid-teens. RCL closed on July 6 at $12.89 with Carnival at $25.44.
For a number of reasons, I don't plan to rush out and buy a lot of RCL even though I think the breakup value (value of the assets if they were sold off individually) is probably close to $26.00 a share based on publicly available information.
Some of those reasons include:
1. Regulatory hurdles - It's true total cruise sales, as a percentage of total vacation sales is quite small. But if CCL were to take over RCL, the new entity would control about 82% of all North American cruise berths and revenue. I don't see the U.S. Department of Justice letting that happen in the U.S., nor various regulatory agencies in Europe letting this happen.
2. The "chemistry" between the top execs at CLL and RCL, Micky Arison and Richard Fain, is the sort of thing that makes legends, with a spirit of competition that seems very real even though there are those that would say it isn't. I don't see CCL taking over RCL without it being hostile, on a level that would make the RJR Nabisco takeover described in "Barbarians at the Gate" a veritable picnic.
3. $35 a share would be about a 34% premium over breakup. CCL has never paid a premium for anything it acquired that I know of and is unlikley to start now.
This merger would be a bad idea if for no other reason than it concentrates too much of an industry in one board room. That said, the seascape will almost certainly change this year because both cruise lines are undervalued and the industry, although prices are on the rise for the first time in a year or so.
Some have suggested Star Cruises, an Asian based line (parent of Norwegian Cruise Line until Apollo Management bought NCL) might be a logical buyer. I don't think that will happen because Star has their own issues, they lack liquidity, and the capital raising power to come up with the roughly $8 billion needed.
So, if there is any chance that RCL could be in play, who might be the player? Apollo Management. This is a money raising machine. Yes they have had problems over the last few months, have nearly twice the money needed to buy RCL at risk with Harrah's and more. But they went back into the REIT (Real Estatte Investment Trust) market in the last couple of days and are raising money just like old times. While still a stretch, Apollo seems more likely to succeed should RCL be put in play than Carnival Corp. Apollo owns three cruise lines, NCL, Oceania, and Regent. They control something over 10% of the industry and would be a formidable competitor to CCL should such a venture succeed.
Monday, June 29, 2009
You can go home again.
My family moved from Greenville, SC between my junior and senior year in high school and I graduated with a bunch of really great people but they weren't the ones I grew up with. Sherrie and I went back to Greenville for the 50th reunion of the Greenville Senior High class of 1959. The organizing committee was kind enough to let us come even though I didn't graduate with them. And it was great! I hadn't seen my classmates for 51 years and surprisingly I recognized seven of them without looking at their name badges. Oh sure they had changed but I recognized them. One of the most interesting was a young lady I'll call Vanda 'cuz that's her name. Oh sure, the hair was a different color and the facial features were different, but as a bunch of us sat in a hospitality suite chatting she smiled and, like an electric shock, so help me it was like an electric shock, I saw the Vanda I knew 51 years ago.
And there were neat things like that all weekend.
The most interesting part was observing. The years had been good to most of us, not so good to some, and some of us had run across a world class surgeon or two. Others of us had run across surgeons of other types. One of my buddies, Howard, recollected for all of us having had open heart surgery and two cancer surgeries. He didn't tell the assembled class exactly what it was but did reveal that it involved 30 feet of garden hose with a television camera, a flashlight and a Swiss Army knife taped to it which the doctor put in a place no one ever thought it could go and God obviously never planned for it to go. Some of us laughed harder than others. Completely understanding humor will do that to you.
The neatest part though was discovering how much so many of us had in common. Many had traveled, had many interests in common, and really enjoyed good food and wines. I knew some of the guys really like PBR from the Clock Drive-In, courtesy of the carhop (cannot remember his name) who was everyone's best friend if they had a buck, but this was different.
Anyway, talking to a number of them led to discussions about a river cruise through Burgundy and Provence and it turns out there are a bunch of us that want to go. So I'm looking at a cruise with Avalon Waterways next May for a really great time.
Here's a link to a slideshow showing a bunch of us including my high school and my grammar school.
Sorry Thomas Wolfe, you got it wrong.
And there were neat things like that all weekend.
The most interesting part was observing. The years had been good to most of us, not so good to some, and some of us had run across a world class surgeon or two. Others of us had run across surgeons of other types. One of my buddies, Howard, recollected for all of us having had open heart surgery and two cancer surgeries. He didn't tell the assembled class exactly what it was but did reveal that it involved 30 feet of garden hose with a television camera, a flashlight and a Swiss Army knife taped to it which the doctor put in a place no one ever thought it could go and God obviously never planned for it to go. Some of us laughed harder than others. Completely understanding humor will do that to you.
The neatest part though was discovering how much so many of us had in common. Many had traveled, had many interests in common, and really enjoyed good food and wines. I knew some of the guys really like PBR from the Clock Drive-In, courtesy of the carhop (cannot remember his name) who was everyone's best friend if they had a buck, but this was different.
Anyway, talking to a number of them led to discussions about a river cruise through Burgundy and Provence and it turns out there are a bunch of us that want to go. So I'm looking at a cruise with Avalon Waterways next May for a really great time.
Here's a link to a slideshow showing a bunch of us including my high school and my grammar school.
Sorry Thomas Wolfe, you got it wrong.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
There's a light at the end of the tunnel
And it's not a train.
This has been a tough year for the travel industry, especially the retail distribution side. Even with doom and gloom economic forecasts, our agency started off with a bang this year and we had great booking activity in January and February. Then as suddenly the bookings turned on just after Christmas, they turned off in March and it seemed there was a race to the bottom to see which cruise line could cut prices the most. We wound up processing bookings four and five times, each time cutting our earnings as prices dropped. One need not be a business major to understand that's a process that can't go on too long.
Prices stayed down and even though volume was pretty good, earnings per booking have been well below the break even point for even the major Internet travel retailers. This has not been lost on travel suppliers, cruise lines in particular, because, contrary to popular belief, travel retailers still provide a most necessary service to their clients and their suppliers. After peaking at about 7%, online cruise bookings have fallen off and are now estimated to be a bit above 5% and even that is misleading. The company that publishes statistics on Internet vacation booking counts any reservation that starts on the Internet as an online booking even though the traveler may call a live travel consultant. I consider an online booking to be one that started on the Internet, finishes on the Internet and never involves a human. With that caveat, it is likely that online cruise bookings are substantially lower.
So where's the light? I think we have seen a firming up in cruise pricing in recent weeks at our agency, and maybe even some signs prices are increasing. Part of that stems from the reality that prices can't go down any further. Part of it is a growing sense of confidence among consumers. As a result, travel retailers who have the resources to hang on until next March will be able to survive practically anything. For them, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
For others, the economy will claim them and they will merge, be bought, or go out of business. Either way, look for maybe a third of all travel agencies to be gone within two years, and maybe less.
Planning a vacation? Contact a local travel retailer and let them do the work for you.
This has been a tough year for the travel industry, especially the retail distribution side. Even with doom and gloom economic forecasts, our agency started off with a bang this year and we had great booking activity in January and February. Then as suddenly the bookings turned on just after Christmas, they turned off in March and it seemed there was a race to the bottom to see which cruise line could cut prices the most. We wound up processing bookings four and five times, each time cutting our earnings as prices dropped. One need not be a business major to understand that's a process that can't go on too long.
Prices stayed down and even though volume was pretty good, earnings per booking have been well below the break even point for even the major Internet travel retailers. This has not been lost on travel suppliers, cruise lines in particular, because, contrary to popular belief, travel retailers still provide a most necessary service to their clients and their suppliers. After peaking at about 7%, online cruise bookings have fallen off and are now estimated to be a bit above 5% and even that is misleading. The company that publishes statistics on Internet vacation booking counts any reservation that starts on the Internet as an online booking even though the traveler may call a live travel consultant. I consider an online booking to be one that started on the Internet, finishes on the Internet and never involves a human. With that caveat, it is likely that online cruise bookings are substantially lower.
So where's the light? I think we have seen a firming up in cruise pricing in recent weeks at our agency, and maybe even some signs prices are increasing. Part of that stems from the reality that prices can't go down any further. Part of it is a growing sense of confidence among consumers. As a result, travel retailers who have the resources to hang on until next March will be able to survive practically anything. For them, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
For others, the economy will claim them and they will merge, be bought, or go out of business. Either way, look for maybe a third of all travel agencies to be gone within two years, and maybe less.
Planning a vacation? Contact a local travel retailer and let them do the work for you.
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Voice of reason or ?
Carnival Corp. announced they don't have plans to reinstate fuel supplement surcharges. Yay. Hooray for some common sense by at least one executive, Micky Arison, at Carnival Corporation. The cruise business is insane just now. We're selling BALCONY staterooms for the same price as INSIDE cabins less than five years ago. We are selling SUITES for what an inside cabin sold for fifteen years ago. We are processing 2 1/2 times as many transactions as we did fifteen years ago and earning the same amount. All that while labor costs and rent have doubled. We have seen some rough spots in this business before but nothing has threatened viability of the travel agent retail distribution system as much as this downturn.
In January I predicted that 1/3 of all agencies would be gone in two years. I now believe I was wrong. It will more than likely be half of them and in eighteen months or less. The worst part of this is that it is genuinely bad for the cruise lines for this to happen. One of the first things I learned in business school is to NEVER allow your product distribution be controlled by a handful of retailers or distributors. When that happens the tail starts wagging the dog and the supplier and the consumer both lose when a small handful of mega agencies control vacation travel sales.
In January I predicted that 1/3 of all agencies would be gone in two years. I now believe I was wrong. It will more than likely be half of them and in eighteen months or less. The worst part of this is that it is genuinely bad for the cruise lines for this to happen. One of the first things I learned in business school is to NEVER allow your product distribution be controlled by a handful of retailers or distributors. When that happens the tail starts wagging the dog and the supplier and the consumer both lose when a small handful of mega agencies control vacation travel sales.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Because I Could
We may not have all done it, but I guarantee that everyone reading this knows someone who, at some point in their lives, has done something just because they could. From putting a super-hero cape around our neck and jumping off the garage roof to see if we really could fly (might have been a towel now that I think about it) to standing sideways with one side of our body against a wall and trying to lift the opposite foot to see if it could be done (it can't), most of us have done something like that.
The speculative run-up in crude oil prices last year was probably the pin that finally popped the U.S. economic balloon. The combination of rising interest rates, gas prices going up $1600 a year per family on average and escalating prices on many other consumer goods was probably what squeezed a lot of families so hard that they began missing mortgage payments and when that happened it was a race to see who could hit bottom first.
Airlines and cruise lines jumped right in as well, adding relatively small fuel surcharges at first, ultimately reaching $11.00 per person per day. It was not until January that cruise lines removed these onerous charges, but did so by adding a qualifier to all bookings from which the surcharge was removed and inserting a provision in all new bookings that stated that if the price of light sweet crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose above $70.00 per barrel for some period of time (that varies by cruise line) that the cruise line reserved the right to add the fuel surcharge back to all bookings. As I write this, light sweet crude oil is bouncing around $68.00 a barrel as OPEC meets to discuss output and pricing. It is likely that oil will close above $70.00 per barrel in the next few days, or weeks at most.
Vacation travel has been surprisingly resilient this year with cruises especially in demand. Suites and deluxe staterooms have been the first to sell out, in great part because the cruise lines have reduced prices very substantially to stimulate demand (if you're a marketing/economics type, the cruise industry is the poster child for demonstrating price elasticity). As a result, mini-suites are selling for prices more typical of an inside stateroom of five years ago, and we may not have seen the bottom yet. The cruise industry is egg-shell fragile just now and so are many of the retail agencies and agents selling their product.
So what does this all have to do with anything? When oil does go back above $70.00 a barrel, I ask the cruise lines to think long and hard about adding back the surcharge to bookings just because they can. Like the boy jumping off the garage roof, the consequences of taking that step will be painful for the cruise lines and for their retail distribution system. This is really not the time to do something just because you can.
And here's another certainty - all you ladies have finished reading this and are off to other endeavors. The vast majority of the guys are still over at the wall trying to lift their opposite foot off the floor.
The speculative run-up in crude oil prices last year was probably the pin that finally popped the U.S. economic balloon. The combination of rising interest rates, gas prices going up $1600 a year per family on average and escalating prices on many other consumer goods was probably what squeezed a lot of families so hard that they began missing mortgage payments and when that happened it was a race to see who could hit bottom first.
Airlines and cruise lines jumped right in as well, adding relatively small fuel surcharges at first, ultimately reaching $11.00 per person per day. It was not until January that cruise lines removed these onerous charges, but did so by adding a qualifier to all bookings from which the surcharge was removed and inserting a provision in all new bookings that stated that if the price of light sweet crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose above $70.00 per barrel for some period of time (that varies by cruise line) that the cruise line reserved the right to add the fuel surcharge back to all bookings. As I write this, light sweet crude oil is bouncing around $68.00 a barrel as OPEC meets to discuss output and pricing. It is likely that oil will close above $70.00 per barrel in the next few days, or weeks at most.
Vacation travel has been surprisingly resilient this year with cruises especially in demand. Suites and deluxe staterooms have been the first to sell out, in great part because the cruise lines have reduced prices very substantially to stimulate demand (if you're a marketing/economics type, the cruise industry is the poster child for demonstrating price elasticity). As a result, mini-suites are selling for prices more typical of an inside stateroom of five years ago, and we may not have seen the bottom yet. The cruise industry is egg-shell fragile just now and so are many of the retail agencies and agents selling their product.
So what does this all have to do with anything? When oil does go back above $70.00 a barrel, I ask the cruise lines to think long and hard about adding back the surcharge to bookings just because they can. Like the boy jumping off the garage roof, the consequences of taking that step will be painful for the cruise lines and for their retail distribution system. This is really not the time to do something just because you can.
And here's another certainty - all you ladies have finished reading this and are off to other endeavors. The vast majority of the guys are still over at the wall trying to lift their opposite foot off the floor.
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